Land cover transitions and changing climate conditions in the Polish Carpathians: Assessment and management implications

Widespread, human-induced land cover (LC) transitions in areas surrounding national parks and nature reserves, accompanied by changing climate conditions, can trigger serious consequences for these natural environments and their ecosystems. The aim of the study was to assess the direction and magnitude of transitions in LC in the Polish Carpathians since 1990 for determining the current status of land degradation neutrality and future degradation risk as well as to analyze concomitant changes in climate conditions to enable sustainable land management. The study area encompasses six national parks with the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization biosphere reserves, several dozen nature reserves, and landscape parks and is a key source of drinking water in Poland. We studied detailed changes in LC (13 classes). The Wilcoxon signed rank test indicated significant increases in built-up areas (urban fabric and industrial/transport infrastructure), waters, dense forest cover, and herbaceous vegetation but a decrease in heterogeneous agricultural areas. On the basis of two new methods, we assessed the LC transitions for 20 mountain catchments and for the entire Polish Carpathians. Although we found a slight positive transition in LC for the entire Polish Carpathians, clearly negative transitions occurred in the five analyzed catchments, including those covering two national parks. These LC transitions are accompanied by changing climate conditions with significant increases in air temperature and precipitation. The ongoing intensive urbanization in the studied mountain region, which is accompanied by significant regional warming, implies the need to apply sustainable management practices that will avoid or reduce degradation in the catchments involved.