Changes in streamflow and sediment for a planned large reservoir in the middle Yellow River

Changes in streamflow and sediment runoffs would affect the reservoir's functional operation and the construction of soil and water conservation measures in China's Loess Plateau. In this study, the long-term changes in streamflow and sediment were analyzed for a main stem section of the middle Yellow River where the to-be-built large Guxian Reservoir is to be located. Results showed that both streamflow and sediment had significant downward trends with the rates of -9.4m(3)s(-1)yr(-1) and -16.8 million tyr(-1), respectively, during the period of 1961-2017. Using the range of variability approach, the change of streamflow regime in its postimpact period (1986-2017) was subjected to the moderate alteration, whereas the alteration of sediment regime was moderate and severe for the first (1980-1996) and second (1997-2017) postimpact periods. As an example, the attribution analyses of annual streamflow and sediment changes were conducted in a typical tributary catchment (Qingjian River) on the right bank of Guxian Reservoir. For the periods of 1980-2002 and 2003-2016, climate variability occupied the primary and secondary proportions to both streamflow and sediment reductions, respectively. Overall, human activities demonstrated the underlying contribution to the sharp declines of streamflow and sediment, accounting for 68% and 74%, respectively, during the period of 1980-2016. We suggest that, based on the operational life of warping dams (built on gully for mitigating gully erosion by raising the gully-bed step-by-step), there are risks of flash flood and high sediment concentration events in the future because the streamflow/sediment-reducing infrastructures may be damaged by extreme rainstorms and in turn become the flood and sediment amplifiers.