Growth curves of myopia-related parameters to clinically monitor the refractive development in Chinese schoolchildren

Purpose To produce a clinical model for the prediction of myopia development based on the creation of percentile curves of axial length in school-aged children from Wuhan in central China. Methods Data of 12,554 children (6054 girls and 6500 boys) were collected and analyzed for the generation of the axial length growth curves. A second data set with 226 children and three yearly successive measurements was used to verify the predictive power of the axial length growth percentile curves. Percentile curves were calculated for both gender groups and four age groups (6, 9, 12, and 15years). The second data set was used to verify the efficacy of identifying the refractive error of the children using the axial length curves, based on their spherical refractive error from the third visit. Results From 6 to 15years of age, all percentiles showed a growth trend in axial length, except for the percentiles below the first quartile, which appear to stabilize after the age of 12 (-0.10; 95%CI, -0.36-0.16; P = 0.23 for girls; -0.16; 95%CI, -0.70-0.39; P = 0.34 for boys); however, the growth continued for the remaining 75% of cases. The second data set showed that the likelihood of suffering high myopia (spherical refractive error <=-5.00D) during adolescent years increased when axial length values were above the first quartile, for both genders. Conclusions The data from the current study provide a tool to observe the annual growth rates of axial length and can be considered as an approach to predict the refractive development at school ages.