Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 46, Issue 7, Pages 3936-3943Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081608
Keywords
climate change; extremes; Paris; projections; attribution
Categories
Funding
- NCI facility in Australia
- Australian Research Council [DE160100092, FT170100106, DE180100638]
- Australian Research Council [DE160100092, FT170100106, DE180100638] Funding Source: Australian Research Council
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The likelihood and severity of high-impact future temperature extremes can be reduced through climate change mitigation efforts. However, meeting the Paris Agreement warming limits requires notably stronger greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts by major emitters than existing pledges. We examine the impact of Paris-era decision-making by the world's three largest greenhouse gas emitters (EU, USA, and China) on projected future extreme temperature events. Country-level contributions to the occurrence of future temperature extremes are calculated based on current emissions policies and sequential mitigation efforts, using a new metric called the Contribution to Excess Risk Ratio. We demonstrate the Contribution concept by applying it to extreme monthly temperature projections. In many regions, future extremes depend on the current and future carbon dioxide emissions reductions adopted by major emitters. By implementing stronger Paris-era climate pledges, major emitters can reduce the frequency of future extremes and their own calculated contributions to these temperature extremes.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available