Modelling Load Profiles of Heat Pumps

Approximately one quarter of energy-related emissions in Germany are caused by the domestic sector. At 81%, the largest share of these emissions is due to heat supply. Many measures are available to reduce these emissions. One of these measures, which is considered to play an important role in many studies, is the replacement of fossil-fired boilers with electric heat pumps. In order to be able to analyse the impact of high penetrations of heat pumps on the energy system, the coefficient of performance (COP) must be modelled with high temporal resolution. In this study, a methodology is presented on how to calculate high-resolution COPs and the electrical load of heat pumps based on thermal load curves and temperature time series. The COP is determined by the reciprocal Carnot factor. Since heat pumps are often designed bivalently due to the cost structure, the methodology described can also be used for evaluating the combination of immersion heater and heat pump (here for the air/water heat pump). As a result the theoretical hourly COPs determined are calibrated with annual performance factors from field tests. The modelled COPs show clear differences. Currently, mostly air source heat pumps are installed in Germany. If this trend continues, the maximum electrical load of the heat supply will increase more than would be the case with higher shares of ground source heat pumps.