Journal
APPLIED ENERGY
Volume 235, Issue -, Pages 10-20Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.10.078
Keywords
Probabilistic load forecasting; Long short-term memory (LSTM); Pinball loss; Demand response; Individual consumer; Quantile regression; Smart meter
Categories
Funding
- National Key RAMP
- D Program of China [2016YFB0900100]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [U1766212]
- State Grid [U1766212]
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The installation of smart meters enables the collection of massive fine-grained electricity consumption data and makes individual consumer level load forecasting possible. Compared to aggregated loads, load forecasting for individual consumers is prone to non-stationary and stochastic features. In this paper, a probabilistic load forecasting method for individual consumers is proposed to handle the variability and uncertainty of future load profiles. Specifically, a deep neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), is used to model both the long-term and short-term dependencies within the load profiles. Pinball loss, instead of the mean square error (MSE), is used to guide the training of the parameters. In this way, traditional LSTM-based point forecasting is extended to probabilistic forecasting in the form of quantiles. Numerical experiments are conducted on an open dataset from Ireland. Forecasting for both residential and commercial consumers is tested. Results show that the proposed method has superior performance over traditional methods.
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