Assessing the biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L): prospective analysis of the impact of the rosette weevil (Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger))

1 Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L) (YST) is an invasive weed native to the Mediterranean region with a geographical centre of diversity in Turkey. It is widely established in Chile, Australia, and western North America. It arrived in California as a contaminant in alfalfa seed in 1859 and, by 2002, had infested > 7.7 million hectares in the U.S.A. 2 Biological control of YST using capitula feeding weevils, picture wing flies and a foliar rust pathogen has been ongoing in the western U.S.A. for more than three decades with limited success. Modelling and field research suggest natural enemies that kill whole plants and/or reduce seed production of survivors are good candidates for successful biological control. A candidate species with some of these attributes is the rosette weevil Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger). 3 In the present study, a model of the rosette weevil is added to an extant system model of YST and its capitula feeding natural enemies and, in a GIS context, is used to assess YST control in the Palearctic region and the weevil's potential impact on YST in western U.S.A. 4 The results obtained suggest densities of mature YST plants in western U.S.A. would be reduced by 70-80% in many areas.