4.7 Article

Melt Pond Conditions on Declining Arctic Sea Ice Over 1979-2016: Model Development, Validation, and Results

Journal

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
Volume 123, Issue 11, Pages 7983-8003

Publisher

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014298

Keywords

Arctic Ocean; sea ice; melt ponds; numerical modeling; climate variability

Categories

Funding

  1. NASA Cryosphere Program [NNX15AG68G, NNX17AD27G, NNX14AH61G]
  2. Office of Naval Research [N00014-12-1-0112]
  3. NSF Office of Polar Programs [PLR-1416920, PLR-1603259, PLR-1602521, ARC-1203425]
  4. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) [2014-ST-061-ML-0002]
  5. DHS grant through the Arctic Domain Awareness Center (ADAC), a DHS Center of Excellence

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A melt pond (MP) distribution equation has been developed and incorporated into the Marginal Ice-Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate Arctic MPs and sea ice over 1979-2016. The equation differs from previous MP models and yet benefits from previous studies for MP parameterizations as well as a range of observations for model calibration. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations, evaluated with Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) data, and closely related to top ice melt per unit ice area. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area, owing to a strong increase in bottom and lateral ice melt. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. However, the Arctic-averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak, statistically insignificant downward trends, which is linked to the fact that MP water drainage per unit ice area is increasing. It is also linked to the fact that MP volume and area decrease relatively faster than ice area. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations that show no clear trend in MP area fraction over 2000-2011. Plain Language Summary Arctic sea ice is characterized by widespread melt ponds (MPs) in summer. A MP distribution conservation equation is incorporated into the Marginal Ice-Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate the evolution of MPs and sea ice over the period 1979-2016. The model captures the observed spatiotemporal variations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MP area fraction (fraction of sea ice area covered by MPs), with low mean bias and high correlation. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area (MP volume per unit area divided by ice concentration) and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with MODIS observations. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. The Arctic-averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak downward trends. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the MODIS observations that show no clear trend.

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