Glacial Lakes in the Nepal Himalaya: Inventory and Decadal Dynamics (1977-2017)

Himalayan glaciers, in general, are shrinking and glacial lakes are evolving and growing rapidly in number and size as a result of climate change. This study presents the latest remote sensing-based inventory (2017) of glacial lakes (size >= 0.0036 km(2)) across the Nepal Himalaya using optical satellite data. Furthermore, this study traces the decadal glacial lake dynamics from 1977 to 2017 in the Nepal Himalaya. The decadal mapping of glacial lakes (both glacial-fed and nonglacial-fed) across the Nepal Himalaya reveals an increase in the number and area of lakes from 1977 to 2017, with 606 (55.53 +/- 16.52 km(2)), 1137 (64.56 +/- 11.64 km(2)), 1228 (68.87 +/- 12.18 km(2)), 1489 (74.2 +/- 14.22 km(2)), and 1541 (80.95 +/- 15.25 km(2)) glacial lakes being mapped in 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007, and 2017, respectively. Glacial lakes show heterogeneous rates of expansion in different river basins and elevation zones of Nepal, with apparent decadal emergences and disappearances. Overall, the glacial lakes exhibited similar to 25% expansion of surface areas from 1987 to 2017. For the period from 1987 to 2017, proglacial lakes with ice contact, among others, exhibited the highest incremental changes in terms of number (181%) and surface area (82%). The continuous amplified mass loss of glaciers, as reported in Central Himalaya, is expected to accompany glacial lake expansion in the future, increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We emphasize that the rapidly increasing glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya can pose potential GLOF threats to downstream population and infrastructure.