Journal
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4
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Funding
- Climate Change projects of the Aquitaine Coastal Observatory
- Risk Prevention Department of BRGM in Orleans
- ECLISEA project (European advances on CLImate services for coasts and SEAs) - ERA4CS framework (European Research Area for Climate Services) through the ERA4CS framework (European Research Area for Climate Services)
- project SONO from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [ANR-17-CE01-0014]
- AXA Research Fund
- Deltares Strategic Research Programme Coastal and Offshore Engineering
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Sandy shorelines are constantly evolving, threatening frequently human assets such as buildings or transport infrastructure. In these environments, sea-level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion to an amount which remains uncertain. Sandy shoreline change projections inherit the uncertainties of future mean sea-level changes, of vertical ground motions, and of other natural and anthropogenic processes affecting shoreline change variability and trends. Furthermore, the erosive impact of sea-level rise itself can be quantified using two fundamentally different models. Here, we show that this latter source of uncertainty, which has been little quantified so far, can account for 20 to 40% of the variance of shoreline projections by 2100 and beyond. This is demonstrated for four contrasting sandy beaches that are relatively unaffected by human interventions in southwestern France, where a variance-based global sensitivity analysis of shoreline projection uncertainties can be performed owing to previous observations of beach profile and shoreline changes. This means that sustained coastal observations and efforts to develop sea-level rise impact models are needed to understand and eventually reduce uncertainties of shoreline change projections, in order to ultimately support coastal land-use planning and adaptation.
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