Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
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Funding
- FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture [2815ERA01J]
- SUSTAg project funded through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture [031B0170B, 031B0170A]
- Innovation Fund Denmark [5105-00001B]
- Academy of Finland [277276]
- Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM) through FACCE-MACSUR
- National Aeronautics and Space Agency Science Mission Directorate [WBS 281945.02.03.06.79]
- JPI FACCE MACSUR2 project - Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food, and Forestry Policies [D.M. 24064/7303/15]
- Szechenyi 2020 program
- European Regional Development Fund-Investing in your future
- Hungarian Government [GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028]
- MINECO [APCIN2016-0005-00-00]
- BBSRC Designing Future Wheat programme [BB/P016855/1]
- BBSRC [BBS/E/C/000I0220] Funding Source: UKRI
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [277276, 277276] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
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Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.
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