Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 2): Insights from a stated choice experiment

This is Part 2 of a two-part study that explores latent demand for three types of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs): plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). Using an in-depth, Reflexive Participant approach to data collection, our survey instrument includes two measures of latent demand implemented with a representative sample of 2123 new vehicle-buying households in Canada in 2017. While Part 1 (Long et al., this issue) reports on a design space exercise, here we summarize results from a stated choice experiment, using a latent class choice model to quantify respondent preferences and motivations, and the heterogeneity therein. We identify five unique respondent classes (or segments) that largely differ by their preferred drivetrain, only three of which demonstrate significant interest in ZEVs: PEV-enthusiast (representing 13% of the sample), PHEV-oriented (22%), and ZEV-neutral (21%). Respondents in all three classes tend to have higher levels of environmental concern or engagement in an environment-oriented lifestyle. All classes significantly value purchase price and incentives, but vary widely in valuation of fuel savings, charging access, and refueling access - with little overall valuation of driving range and public charging access. We calculate conditional choice probabilities as estimates of ZEV latent demand, which is equivalent to 29% of new market share under base conditions, and significantly increases to a high of 49% with purchase incentives and widespread charger deployment. Our discussion compares insights provided by the two stated response approaches to latent demand (in Parts 1 and 2), making a case for overall complementarity.