CHA2DS2-VASc score is useful in predicting poor 12-month outcomes following myocardial infarction in diabetic patients without atrial fibrillation

TIMI risk score and GRACE risk model are widely available and accepted scores for risk assessment in STEMI patients and include predictors of poor outcomes. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc is a validated score for predicting embolic/stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Its components contribute to the worse prognosis following myocardial infarction. The advantage of the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score in comparison with other risk scores is that it provides a comprehensive, fast, and simple method for physicians in risk evaluation that requires no calculators or computers. Therefore, we have set out to examine the prognostic significance of CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score following STEMI in diabetic patients without AF. A total of 472 patients with diabetes mellitus and STEMI undergoing primary PCI were enrolled. Based on the estimated CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score, the study population was divided into three groups: group 1 (N = 111) with a moderate CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score of 2 or 3; group 2 (N = 257) with a high CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score of 4 or 5; and group 3 (N = 104) with a very high CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score of 6 or higher. In diabetic patients with STEMI, the median of CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was 4 (interquartile range 3-5). In-hospital mortality rate was similar across three groups. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was not a risk factor of in-hospital mortality. ROC analysis revealed good diagnostic value of CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score in predicting long-term mortality (AUC 0.62 95 % CI 0.57-0.66 P = 0.0003) and stroke (AUC 0.75 95 % CI 0.71-0.79 P = 0.0003), but no value in predicting long-term myocardial infarction. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was an independent predictor of 12-month mortality and stroke. One-point increment in CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was associated with an increase in the risk of 12-month death by 24 % and for 12-month stroke by 101 %. In diabetic patients with STEMI and no previous AF, median CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was high (4 points) and predicted 12-month death and stroke. However, it failed to predict in-hospital death and 12-month MI. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score had a similar discrimination performance in predicting 12-month mortality as TIMI risk score and a better discrimination performance in predicting 12-month stroke than TIMI risk score. Thus, it can serve as an additive tool in identifying high-risk patients that require aggressive management.