Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 115, Issue 42, Pages 10600-10605Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1802129115
Keywords
drought; drought losses; projections; global warming; China
Categories
Funding
- National Key R&D Program of China [2017YFA0603701]
- National 1000 Talent Program [Y474171]
- National Natural Science foundation of China [41671211, 41661144027]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and intensity-loss rate function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 degrees C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 degrees C warming.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available