Modelling the spatial distribution of three Portunidae crabs in Haizhou Bay, China

Crab species are economically and ecologically important in coastal ecosystems, and their spatial distributions are pivotal for conservation and fisheries management. This study was focused on modelling the spatial distributions of three Portunidae crabs (Charybdis bimaculata, Charybdis japonica, and Portunus trituberculatus) in Haizhou Bay, China. We applied three analytical approaches (Generalized additive model (GAM), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN)) to spring and fall bottom trawl survey data (2011, 20132016) to develop and compare species distribution models (SDMs). Model predictability was evaluated using cross-validation based on the observed species distribution. Results showed that sea bottom temperature (SBT), sea bottom salinity (SBS), and sediment type were the most important factors affecting crab distributions. The relative importance of candidate variables was not consistent among species, season, or model. In general, we found ANNs to have less stability than both RFs and GAMs. GAMs overall yielded the least complex response curve structure. C. japonica was more pronounced in southwestern portion of Haizhou Bay, and C. bimaculata tended to stay in offshore areas. P. trituberculatus was the least region-specific and exhibited substantial annual variations in abundance. The comparison of multiple SDMs was informative to understand species responses to environmental factors and predict species distributions. This study contributes to better understanding the environmental niches of crabs and demonstrates best practices for the application of SDMs for management and conservation planning.