Journal
KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
Volume 23, Issue 4, Pages 1484-1492Publisher
KOREAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-KSCE
DOI: 10.1007/s12205-019-1826-z
Keywords
simulation; PERT; schedule risk analysis; project completion times; probability
Categories
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) model uses parameters such as the specified project completion time, mean, and variance to estimate the probability of project completion time. However, this model uses a weighted average and unweighted value in the variance, which is based on six sigma of the mean. Despite many proposed modifications to improve the traditional PERT model, the hidden error in the calculation of the variance and mean of the PERT approach has not been adequately addressed. This error leads to underestimation of the schedule risk. Considering the impact of variance and mean on the probability of project completion times, this study contributes to the improvement of the accuracy of schedule risk estimation by proposing a modified variance and mean of the original PERT model. The original PERT model was first used to estimate the project completion time. However, using the proposed modified model to estimate the completion time, a 95% confidence interval assumption and the corresponding distribution within +/- 2 standard deviation of the mean and standard or Z values were employed to model the new mean and variance equations. To prove the validity of the proposed modified variance and mean assumptions, we performed a schedule risk analysis through simulation using Oracle Crystal Ball for comparison. The results showed that the proposed PERT model had a better mean error rate of 2.46% as compared to 3.31% of the original PERT model.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available