Coupling Interactions and Performance: Predicting Team Performance from Thin Slices of Conflict

Do teams show stable conflict interaction patterns that predict their performance hours, weeks, or even months in advance? Two studies demonstrate that two of the same patterns of emotional interaction dynamics that distinguish functional from dysfunctional marriages also distinguish high from low-performance design teams in the field, up to 6 months in advance, with up to 91% accuracy, and based on just 15minutes of interaction data: Group Affective Balance, the balance of positive to negative affect during an interaction, and Hostile Affect, the expression of a set of specific negative behaviors were both found as predictors of team performance. The research also contributes a novel method to obtain a representative sample of a team's conflict interaction. Implications for our understanding of design work in teams and for the design of groupware and feedback intervention systems are discussed.