Journal
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
Volume 33, Issue 1, Pages 20-35Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13318
Keywords
data and water scarcity; GR1A; GR2M; hydrological modelling; Peru; regional runoff
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Funding
- Peruvian Ministry of Education (MINEDU-PRONABEC)
- Fondecyt [1171861]
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In a context of water scarcity in Peruvian Pacific catchments as a crucial issue for Peru, added to the paucity of data availability, we propose a methodology that provides new perspectives for freshwater availability estimation as a base reference for unimpaired conditions. Under those considerations, a regional discharge of 709 m(3)/s to the Pacific Ocean is estimated with a significant increasing trend of about 43 m(3)/s per decade over the 1970-2010 period. To represent the multidecadal behaviour of freshwater runoff along the region, a regional runoff analysis is proposed based on hydrological modelling at annual and monthly time step for unimpaired conditions over the whole 1970-2010 period. Differential Split-Sample Tests are used to assess the hydrological modelling robustness of the GR1A and GR2M conceptual lumped models, showing a satisfactory transposability from dry to wet years inside the thresholds defined for Nash-Sutcliffe and bias criteria. This allowed relating physical catchment characteristics with calibrated and validated model parameters, thus offering a regional perspective for dryland conditions in the study area (e.g., the anticlockwise hysteresis relationship found for seasonal precipitation-runoff relationship) as well as the impacts of climate variability and catchment characteristics.
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