Journal
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
Volume 25, Issue 1, Pages 155-173Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14481
Keywords
climate change adaptation; climate change impact; food security; grain protein; wheat
Funding
- National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China [20120097110042]
- International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
- CGIAR Research Program on Wheat
- EU Marie Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme
- French National Institute for Agricultural Research
- National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China
- Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41571088, 41571493]
- German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF)
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
- Innovation Fund Denmark
- China Scholarship Council
- Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies
- Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Forestry (MMM)
- Academy of Finland
- Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources
- University of Melbourne
- Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture
- German Science Foundation
- Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project
- Rothamsted Research
- Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources
- Grains Research Development Corporation, Australia
- BBSRC [BBS/E/C/000I0220] Funding Source: UKRI
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Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
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