Journal
GASTROENTEROLOGY
Volume 156, Issue 5, Pages 1345-+Publisher
W B SAUNDERS CO-ELSEVIER INC
DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.01.002
Keywords
Crohn Disease; Ulcerative Colitis; Epidemiology; Forecast Modeling
Categories
Funding
- CIHR [153420, THC-135235]
- Digestive Health Strategic Clinical Network, Alberta Health Services
- Izaak Walton Killam Doctoral Scholarship
- Eyes High Doctoral Recruitment Scholarship
- Crohn's and Colitis Canada
- Canadian Association of Gastroenterology
- Career Enhancement Program of the Canadian Child Health Clinician Scientist Program
- Bingham Chair in Gastroenterology
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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.
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