Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles

The aim of this study is to show the progress in attributes and prices of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and to analyse in which market segments long range BEV can be produced at comparable cost to conventional cars. We assess 48 models available to consumers since 1997, collecting data on attributes, weight and vehicle prices. We also provide an analysis of recent progress in battery pack costs. Based on this data, the share of BEV vehicle price that is related to the battery pack is modelled. To illustrate future progress we estimate when it is possible to produce a BEV with a 200 mile range in a given price percentile. We find that the price percentile where the price of a BEV is comparable to conventional cars changes in a nonlinear way when battery pack costs fall below 200-250 USD/kWh. Furthermore, we show that battery pack costs of 150 USD/kWh could imply that production costs of a BEV with a 200 mile range are cost competitive for almost 50% of the US car market segments by 2020. Finally, the most critical conditions for this development are discussed and assessed by sensitivity analysis applying conservative values to our model.