Evaluation of the impact of water supply disruptions in bioethanol production

Factors such as raw materials availability, production capacity, technology, and costs promote the development and feasibility of supply chains. However, some other factors are more than important for supply chain development; they are essential. In the context of biofuel supply chains, water is a crucial factor; nevertheless, scientific research has not yet analyzed how water scarcity can compromise the performance of these supply chains. To address this gap, this research analyzes as a case study a leading company in Mexico that produces and distributes biofuel in the country. Lately, the company has experienced serious production stoppages due to water supply disruptions. This work develops a system dynamics simulation model to evaluate, by means of a sensitivity analysis, the effects of water supply disruption on industrial production and biofuel demand satisfaction in four duration periods: 8, 12, 24, and 48 h. The results indicate that production disruptions due to water scarcity can be avoided by reducing the mash flow that feeds the distillation column as long as the water scarcity period lasts no more than 12 h. Similarly, it was found that demand satisfaction decreases when the scarcity period lasts for 24-48 h, yet demand satisfaction remains stable when water disruption lasts less than 24 h. The findings also indicate that when demand increases by 20%, it is impossible to fulfill it in any case. Therefore, several scenarios designed to improve demand satisfaction were evaluated.