Scenario-based evaluation of urban development sustainability: an integrative modeling approach to compromise between urbanization suitability index and landscape pattern

Sustainability analysis of urban complex systems, as an interdisciplinary study, necessitates integrative modeling approaches for analyzing relationships between land parameters and landscape patterns. The present paper emphasizes applicability of dynamic and scenario-based investigation of urban environments for understanding the interactions between urbanization suitability and landscape pattern. Combining parameter modification and model integration approaches for introducing growth alternatives, a basis was established for detailed assessment of the Karaj urban context, Iran. SLEUTH's probabilistic images of future urbanized lands of two growth scenarios (historical trend-based urban growth and compact urban growth) were simultaneously employed as dynamic factors for urbanization suitability mapping and landscape pattern analysis of the years 2011, 2020, 2030 and 2040. Findings of the present studies showed while historical trend-based urban expansion occupied more land resources, this growth option resulted in a more manageable pattern of urban landscape in terms of its connectivity and compactness as well as possessing higher urbanization suitability index across the study time frame. This study addresses utility of scenario-based analysis of urban areas that furnishes urban planners with insights into cumulative impacts of an ongoing urbanization process under different environmental circumstances.