Journal
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY
Volume 63, Issue 4, Pages 653-663Publisher
STOCKHOLM UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00515.x
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Funding
- National Science Foundation [ARC 0805821, ARC 0901962]
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NNX08AQ70G, NNG04GO51G]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [0805821] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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An Arctic Ocean with less sea ice and more open water in September has led to anomalous warming of the overlying atmosphere in autumn. Through influences on column water vapour and atmospheric circulation, it is reasonable to expect that this warming will have impacts on Arctic precipitation. Analysis of data from the JRA-25 atmospheric reanalysis reveals an autumn increase in cyclone-associated precipitation over the past decade. This is linked to a shift in atmospheric circulation towards more frequent and more intense cyclones in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Composites based on years with the five lowest and five highest September ice extents reveal more autumn cyclone associated precipitation and columnwater vapour during low ice years than during high ice years. However, difficulties in establishing cause and effect, including the absence of a clear association between spatial patterns of recent precipitation changes and ice extent anomalies, lead us to conclude that attribution of recent autumn precipitation increases to reduced ice cover is premature.
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