The effect of ozone depletion on the Southern Annular Mode and stratosphere-troposphere coupling

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Using the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols chemistry-climate model, we compare reference runs that include forcing due to greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances to sensitivity simulations in which ozone-depleting substances are fixed at their 1960 levels. We find that ozone depletion leads to an increased frequency of extreme anomalies and increased persistence of the SAM in the stratosphere as well as stronger, more persistent stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Currently, the stratosphere provides an appreciable amount of predictability to the troposphere on timescales of 1 or 2months; however, we find that this effect reduces over time as stratospheric ozone recovers to preozone hole levels toward the latter part of this century.