Journal
JOURNAL OF HIGH ENERGY PHYSICS
Volume -, Issue 9, Pages -Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/JHEP09(2011)039
Keywords
NLO Computations; Hadronic Colliders; QCD
Categories
Funding
- [ANR-09-BLAN-0060]
- [PITN-GA-2010-264564]
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We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e(+)e(-) -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.
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