Climate Change and Potato Production in Contrasting South African Agro-ecosystems 1. Effects on Land and Water Use Efficiencies

Explorations of the impact of climate change on potential potato yields were obtained by downscaling the projections of six different coupled climate models to high spatial resolution over southern Africa. The simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, and solar radiation were used as input to run the crop growth model LINTUL-Potato. Pixels representative for potato growing areas were selected for four globally occurring agro-ecosystems: rainy and dry winter and summer crops. The simulated inter-annual variability is much greater for rainfall than for temperature. Reference evapotranspiration and radiation are projected to hardly decline over the 90-year period, whilst temperatures are projected to rise significantly by about 1.9 A degrees C. From literature, it was found that radiation use efficiency of potato increased with elevated CO2 concentrations by almost 0.002 g MJ(-1) ppm(-1). This ratio was used to calculate the CO2 effect on yields between 1960 and 2050, when CO2 concentration increases from 315 to 550 ppm. Within this range, evapotranspiration by the potato crop was reduced by about 13% according to literature. Simulated yield increase was strongest in the Mediterranean-type winter crop (+37%) and least under Mediterranean summer (+12%) and relatively warm winter conditions (+14%) closer to the equator. Water use efficiency also increased most in the cool rainy Mediterranean winter (+45%) and least so in the winter crop closer to the equator (+14%). It is concluded from the simulations that for all four agro-ecosystems possible negative effects of rising temperatures and reduced availability of water for potato are more than compensated for by the positive effect of increased CO2 levels on water use efficiency and crop productivity.