Mapping Environmental Dimensions of Dengue Fever Transmission Risk in the Aburra Valley, Colombia

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellin, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellin and Itagui). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellin present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagui. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities.