Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China

Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960 similar to 2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960 similar to 1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973 similar to 1986 and 1987 similar to 2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%similar to 44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38%similar to 128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of ecohydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.