The influence of the wind in the Schmallenberg virus outbreak in Europe

A model previously developed for the wind-borne spread by midges of bluetongue virus in NW Europe in 2006 is here modified and applied to the spread of Schmallenberg virus in 2011. The model estimates that pregnant animals were infected 113 days before producing malformed young, the commonest symptom of reported infection, and explains the spatial and temporal pattern of infection in 70% of the 3,487 affected farms, most of which were infected by midges arriving through downwind movement (62% of explained infections), or a mixture of downwind and random movements (38% of explained infections), during the period of day (1600-2100 h, i.e. dusk) when these insects are known to be most active. The main difference with Bluetongue is the higher rate of spread of SBV, which has important implications for disease control.