Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Volume 5, Issue 2, Pages 143-147Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2470
Keywords
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Funding
- International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
- USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture [32011-68002-30191]
- KULUNDA [01LL0905L]
- FACCE MACSUR project through the German FederalMinistry of Education and Research (BMBF) [031A103B, 2812ERA115]
- German Science Foundation [EW119/5-1]
- FACCEMACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council
- FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL)
- FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41071030]
- Helmholtz project 'REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects' Topic 9: 'Climate Change and Air Quality'
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS)
- Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation
- Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia
- Texas AgriLife Research, Texas AM University
- CSIRO
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
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Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
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