Journal
METHODS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
Volume 5, Issue 3, Pages 273-286Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12148
Keywords
weather; biophysical ecology; mechanistic model; climate; soil temperature; microclimate
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Funding
- University of Melbourne Science Faculty Seed Grant
- Australian Research Council (ARC) Fellowship
- ARC Laureate Fellowship
- ARC Federation Fellowship
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
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The microclimate experienced by organisms is determined by local weather conditions. Yet the environmental data available for predicting the effect of climate on the distribution and abundance of organisms are typically in the form of long-term average monthly climate measured at standardized heights above the ground. Here, we demonstrate how hourly microclimates can be modelled mechanistically over decades at the continental scale with biologically suitable accuracy. We extend the microclimate model of the software package niche mapper to capture spatial and temporal variation in soil thermal properties and integrate it with gridded soil and weather data for Australia at 0 center dot 05 degrees resolution. When tested against historical observations of soil temperature, the microclimate model predicted 85% of the variation in hourly soil temperature across 10years from the surface to 1m deep with an accuracy of 2-3 center dot 3 degrees C (c. 10% of the temperature range at a given depth) across an extremely climatically diverse range of sites. This capacity to accurately and mechanistically predict hourly local microclimates across continental scales creates new opportunities for understanding how organisms respond to changes in climate.
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