Climate change and its impact on tea in Northeast India

The analysis of this study focused on the tea growing areas of Northeast India to provide predictions for future climate scenarios and its impact on tea production by 2050. The applied methodology involves a combination of current climate data with future climate change predictions from different models for 2050 as derived by WorldClim and IPCC4 (CIAT recommended). The results showed the possibility of an increase in average temperature by 2 degrees C in 2050, while not much variation is observed in the rainfall pattern. A change in tea production period is also expected by 2050 making tea planters look for alternative crops as an adaptive measure to keep the industry on its feet. With such expected impacts on tea production, the planters would need to make changes in their management practices to adapt to the evolving conditions and environment. In this study, the climate data were used as input to DIVA GIS Model. Monthly climate data were fed into Cranfield University Plantation Productivity Analysis for Tea Model (CUPPA Tea Model) to simulate observed and predicted yields. The study further shows that the overall climate will become less seasonal in terms of variation through the years followed by expected variations in monthly precipitation during the peak production months.