Acute retroviral syndrome and high baseline viral load are predictors of rapid HIV progression among untreated Argentinean seroconverters

Background: Diagnosis of primary HIV infection (PHI) has important clinical and public health implications. HAART initiation at this stage remains controversial. Methods: Our objective was to identify predictors of disease progression among Argentinean seroconverters during the first year of infection, within a multicentre registry of PHI-patients diagnosed between 1997 and 2008. Cox regression was used to analyze predictors of progression (LT-CD4 < 350 cells/mm(3), B, C events or death) at 12 months among untreated patients. Results: Among 134 subjects, 74% presented with acute retroviral syndrome (ARS). Seven opportunistic infections (one death), nine B events, and 10 non-AIDS defining serious events were observed. Among the 92 untreated patients, 24 (26%) progressed at 12 months versus three (7%) in the treated group (p = 0.01). The 12-month progression rate among untreated patients with ARS was 34% (95% CI 22.5-46.3) versus 13% (95% CI 1.1-24.7) in asymptomatic patients (p = 0.04). In univariate analysis, ARS, baseline LT-CD4 < 350 cells/mm(3), and baseline and six-month viral load (VL) > 100,000 copies/mL were associated with progression. In multivariate analysis, only ARS and baseline VL > 100,000 copies/mL remained independently associated; HR: 8.44 (95% CI 0.97-73.42) and 9.44 (95% CI 1.38-64.68), respectively. Conclusions: In Argentina, PHI is associated with significant morbidity. HAART should be considered in PHI patients with ARS and high baseline VL to prevent disease progression.