Journal
JOURNAL OF BUILDING PERFORMANCE SIMULATION
Volume 6, Issue 4, Pages 257-268Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/19401493.2012.706388
Keywords
risk analysis; energy efficiency projects; building energy models; Bayesian calibration; energy service companies
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Funding
- Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EECi) at the University of Cambridge
- NSF-EFRI SEED
- Directorate For Engineering
- Emerging Frontiers & Multidisciplinary Activities [1038248] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/F034350/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/F034350/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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This article presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This article demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the energy service company industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach with standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.
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