Journal
EPIDEMICS
Volume 1, Issue 3, Pages 153-161Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004
Keywords
Emerging diseases; Infectious diseases; Epidemiology; Risk maps; Climate change
Categories
Funding
- EU
- Technological Development and Demonstration
- European Commission [GOCECT-2003-010284 EDEN]
- EDEN Steering Committee [EDEN0098]
- European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) [CT/EFSA/SCAD/2006/01]
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BBS/B/00646] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [CEH010021] Funding Source: researchfish
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Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R-0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R-0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R-0. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R-0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R-0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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