Response and adaptation of soybean systems to climate warming in Northeast China: insights gained from long-term field trials

Developing and assessing successful strategies to alleviate adverse impact of climate warming presents a new opportunity for sustainable agriculture and adaptation investment. Efforts to anticipate adaptation of cropping systems may benefit from understanding the global warming effects within decades. This study quantitatively examines the temperature warming impacts during, respectively, growing season and seed filling on soybean yields by using data from long-term field fertilisation experiments from 1987 to 2004. Here we report that grain yields significantly decreased with rising temperature during growing season, whereas the effects of increasing temperature at seed-filling stage on crop yields were significantly positive. The results indicate that a further temperature increment during seed filling appears to decrease soybean system's risk of yield reduction. Importantly, we inferred that earlier occurrence of seed filling would increase the temperature of this period. The implication is that advancing the onset of soybean seed filling could be an effective adaptation option to global warming, providing an average yield benefit of similar to 14% per 10 days before the present date.