Evaluating climate impacts on carbon balance of the terrestrial ecosystems in the Midwest of the United States with a process-based ecosystem model

The Midwest of the United States includes 12 states and accounts for about a quarter of the total United State land area. In recent years, there is an increasing interest in knowing the biomass potential and carbon balance over this region for the past and the future. In this study, we use the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to evaluate these quantities in the region from 1948 to 2099. We first parameterize the model with field data of major crops, including corn (Zea mays), soybean (Glycine max), and wheat (Triticum spp); then the model is applied to the region for the historical period (1948-2000). Next, we evaluate the simulated forestry biomass with forest inventory data, the agricultural net primary production (NPP) with agricultural statistics data, and the regional NPP with a satellite-based product at the regional scale. Our results show that the simulated annual NPP for the Midwest increased by 1.75% per year and the whole Midwest terrestrial ecosystem acted as a carbon sink during 1948-2005. During the 21st century, vegetation and soil carbon fluxes and pools show an increase trend with a great inter-annual variability. The ecosystems serve as a carbon sink under future climate scenarios. NPP in the Midwest will increase and net ecosystem production (NEP) will also increase and show an even larger interannual variability. This study provides the information of the biomass and NEP at a state- level in the Midwest, which will be valuable for the region stakeholders to better manage their land for the purpose of increasing carbon sequestration on the one hand and meeting the increasing demand of biomass on the other.