Journal
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
Volume 7, Issue 3, Pages 265-279Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12055
Keywords
Forecast; modelling; uncertainty analysis
Categories
Funding
- Engineering and Physical Science Research Council
- European Commission Seventh Framework Programme project IMproving Preparedness and RIsk maNagemenT for flash floods and debriS flow events (IMPRINTS)
- Environment Agency [SC080030]
- Natural Environment Research Council [ceh010010] Funding Source: researchfish
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Operational flood forecasting has become a complex and multifaceted task, increasingly being treated in probabilistic ways to allow for the inherent uncertainties in the forecasting process. This paper reviews recent applications of data-based mechanistic (DBM) models within the operational UK National Flood Forecasting System. The position of DBM models in the forecasting chain is considered along with their offline calibration and validation. The online adaptive implementation with assimilation of water level information as used for forecasting is outlined. Two example applications based upon UK locations where severe flooding has occurred, the River Eden at Carlisle and River Severn at Shrewsbury, are presented.
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