Impacts and adaptation options of climate change on ecosystem services in Finland: a model based study

At a global level, it is estimated that nearly two-thirds of ecosystem services have been degraded in just fifty years. The additional stresses imposed by climate change will require extraordinary adaptation. This paper synthesises main result of a large Finnish project studying the vulnerability of key ecosystem services to climate change and the possibilities for the individual sectors to adapt to these changes. The project based its work on data and infrastructures of nine intensively studied areas belonging to the Finnish LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) network. The methods developed and used included remote sensing, derivation of impact scenarios, dynamic modelling, laboratory experiments, interactive workshops and expert judgement. The results clearly indicated not only complex interactions between the different ecosystem processes but also trade-offs between the ecosystem services. Climate change was predicted to have both positive and negative effects on key ecosystem services in Finnish conditions, the results being sector-specific and scenario-specific. Provisioning services like food and timber production would largely benefit from increasing temperatures. and prolongation of the growing season in the cool Finnish conditions (with e.g. estimated increases in growth rates of trees up to 80% and the introduction of a wider selection of crops), although increasing occurrence of factors such as fungal diseases and insect outbreaks were estimated to cause increasing risks. On the other hand, climate change was predicted to pose a major threat to several endangered and valuable species, water and air quality, and tourism services dependent on present climate conditions. Goal conflicts between maximising service production and meeting environmental quality objectives were also identified. Adaptation options and impact thresholds identified together with local enterprises and experts are presented.