Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Volume 6, Issue 4, Pages 1574-1585Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TSTE.2015.2456019
Keywords
Approximation techniques; capacity value; generation planning; installed reserve margin; solar
Categories
Funding
- U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office as part of the DOE SunShot Initiative
- U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration [DE-AC04-94-AL85000]
- [CONICYT/FONDAP/15110019]
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There exist several different reliability-and approximation-based methods to determine the contribution of solar resources toward resource adequacy. However, most of these approaches require knowing in advance the installed capacities of both conventional and solar generators. This is a complication since generator capacities are actually decision variables in capacity planning studies. In this paper, we study the effect of time resolution and solar PV penetration using a planning model that accounts for the full distribution of generator outages and solar resource variability. We also describe a modification of a standard deterministic planning model that enforces a resource adequacy target through a reserve margin constraint. Our numerical experiments show that at least 50 days worth of data are necessary to approximate the results of the full-resolution model with a maximum error of 2.5% on costs and capacity. We also show that the amount of displaced capacity of conventional generation decreases rapidly as the penetration of solar PV increases. We find that using an exogenously defined and constant capacity value based on time-series data can yield relatively accurate results for small penetration levels. For higher penetration levels, the modified deterministic planning model better captures avoided costs and the decreasing value of solar PV.
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