Use of flow modeling to assess sustainability of groundwater resources in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the global hotspots of groundwater depletion. Currently, our understanding is limited on spatiotemporal variability in depletion and approaches toward more sustainable groundwater development in this region. This study was intended to simulate spatiotemporal variability in groundwater depletion across the entire NCP and explore approaches to reduce future depletion. Simulated predevelopment groundwater recharge (similar to 13 km(3)/yr) primarily discharged as base flow to rivers and evapotranspiration. Initial groundwater storage was estimated to be 1500 km(3) of drainable storage in shallow aquifers and 40 km(3) of compressive storage in deep aquifers. Simulated groundwater depletion from 1960s to 2008 averaged similar to 4 km(3)/yr. Cumulative depletion was 50 km(3) (similar to 20% of pumpage) in the piedmont district, 103 km(3) (similar to 20%) in the central plain, and 5 km(3) (12%) in the coastal plain. However, depletion varied with time: similar to 2.5 km(3)/yr in the 1970s, similar to 4.0 in the 1980s, similar to 2.0 in 1990-1996; similar to 7.0 in 1997-2001, and similar to 4.0 in 2002-2008. Recharge also varied spatially, averaging similar to 120 mm/yr and concentrated in the piedmont district (200-350 mm/yr) while lower in the central and coastal plains (50-100 mm/yr). Simulation of several alternatives, including managed aquifer recharge, increased water use efficiency, brackish water use, and interbasin water transfer, indicated that the combination of these strategies could be used to recover groundwater storage by 50 km(3) over a 15-year period. This study provides valuable insights for developing more sustainable groundwater management options for the NCP; the methods are useful for managing other depleted aquifers. Citation: Cao, G., C. Zheng, B. R. Scanlon, J. Liu, and W. Li (2013), Use of flow modeling to assess sustainability of groundwater resources in the North China Plain, Water Resour. Res., 49, doi:10.1029/2012WR011899.