Statistical Analysis of Long Term Trends of Rainfall During 1901-2002 at Assam, India

Rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle and its variability is important from both the scientific as well as socio-economic point of view. This study presents an analysis based on the precipitation variation in Assam, India over 102 years from 1901 to 2002. Precipitation data from 21 stations have been collected. These data have been analyzed for both annual and seasonal variation. For trend analysis, Mann-Kendell and Sen's slope estimator test were used. To compare seasonal variations, three seasons of winter, summer and monsoon have been considered. Mean annual precipitation varied from 2,074 mm (at Tinsukia) to 3,538 mm (at North Chahar Hills). The most probable year of change was 1959 in annual precipitation. Time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) depict that near normal occurs in about 68 years out 102 years, and in 2.48 years out of 102 years there was an extreme wet. All these findings can help provide rational regulatory and policy in relation to water resources to maintain the health of the various ecosystems that make up Assam, India.