Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources

The GLOWA-Danube research cooperation has developed the integrated simulation system DANUBIA to simulate water-related influences of global change in different spatial and temporal contexts. DANUBIA is a modular system comprised of 17 dynamically-coupled, process-based model components and a framework which controls the interaction of these components with respect to space and time. This article describes approaches and capabilities of DANUBIA with regard to the simulation of global change effects on agriculture and groundwater. To the agriculture-groundwater-relation, the direct effects that climate change has on the water balance are just as important as decisions made by land managers about land use and farming intensity. This article provides firstly a brief review of the research efforts which have been undertaken in the field of integrated modeling of agriculture and groundwater under conditions of global change. Then, the DANUBIA simulation framework and the associated DeepActor-framework for simulation of decision-making by agricultural actors are presented together with the model components which are most relevant to the interactions between agriculture and groundwater. The approach for developing combination climate and socio-economic scenarios is explained. Exemplary scenario results are shown for the Upper Danube Catchment in Southern Germany. Finally issues related to integrated simulation of global change effects on agriculture and groundwater are discussed.