Journal
ELIFE
Volume 4, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELIFE SCIENCES PUBLICATIONS LTD
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.09672
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- Medical Research Council [K00669X]
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1068048, OPP1110495, OPP1106023, OPP1119467, OPP1093011]
- Foundation for the National Institutes of Health [U19AI089674]
- Fogarty International Center
- Wellcome Trust [091835, 095066]
- World Health Organization
- Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
- Department for International Development
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1119467, OPP1093011] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- MRC [MR/K00669X/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Medical Research Council [MR/K00669X/1, MR/K010174/1B] Funding Source: researchfish
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Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. We explored the impact of two potential 'inefficiencies': uneven net distribution among households and rapid rates of net loss from households. We estimated that, in 2013, 21% (17%-26%) of ITNs were over-allocated and this has worsened over time as overall net provision has increased. We estimated that rates of ITN loss from households are more rapid than previously thought, with 50% lost after 23 (20-28) months. We predict that the current estimate of 920 million additional ITNs required to achieve universal coverage would in reality yield a lower level of coverage (77% population access). By improving efficiency, however, the 920 million ITNs could yield population access as high as 95%.
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