Journal
VACCINE
Volume 29, Issue 6, Pages 1270-1277Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.11.082
Keywords
Human Papillomavirus; Vaccination; Mathematical modelling
Categories
Funding
- Compagnia San Paolo-FIRMS (Center for Experimental Research and Medical Studies)
- Regione Piemonte Italy, Assessorato Sanita, Progetti di Ricerca Sanitaria Finalizzata
- Sanofi Pasteur MSD
- Merck
- GSK
- Medical Research Council [G0801056B] Funding Source: researchfish
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A model representing carcinogenic HPV infection transmission dynamics and cervical cancer natural history was adapted to assess the consequences of introducing vaccination against HPV-16 infection. Alternative scenarios either allowing repeated infections with the HPV-16 (i.e. SIS scenario) or assuming that clearance of infection occurs through the development of a long lasting, specific immune response which protects against re-infection (i.e. SIR scenario) were investigated. The difference in reduction in lifetime cervical cancer achieved through vaccination of 12-year-old girls, between SIS and SIR scenarios, was up to 25% of expected cases in an unscreened population. This difference increased to 30% when vaccination of 12-year-old boys was also included as an intervention. The role of SIS or SIR dynamics should be accounted for in the assessment of model-based projections of the effectiveness of vaccination programmes, until available data about the transmission dynamics support the accuracy of model predictions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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