Journal
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
Volume 26, Issue 2, Pages 96-104Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE LONDON
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2010.11.003
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Funding
- NSF [DBI 0850290, DEB 0840964, DEB 0743778]
- Office of Science (BER), Department of Energy [DE-FG02-006ER64319]
- Midwestern Regional Center of the National Institute for Climatic Change Research at Michigan Technological University [DE-FC02-06ER64158]
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Division Of Environmental Biology [840964] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Of Biological Infrastructure
- Direct For Biological Sciences [0850290] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office Of The Director
- EPSCoR [0919466] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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In this review, we propose a new framework, dynamic disequilibrium of the carbon cycles, to assess future land carbon-sink dynamics. The framework recognizes internal ecosystem processes that drive the carbon cycle toward equilibrium, such as donor pool-dominated transfer; and external forces that create disequilibrium, such as disturbances and global change. Dynamic disequilibrium within one disturbance-recovery episode causes temporal changes in the carbon source and sink at yearly and decadal scales, but has no impacts on longer-term carbon sequestration unless disturbance regimes shift. Such shifts can result in long-term regional carbon loss or gain and be quantified by stochastic statistics for use in prognostic modeling. If the regime shifts result in ecosystem state changes in regions with large carbon reserves at risk, the global carbon cycle might be destabilized.
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