Journal
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD
Volume -, Issue 2312, Pages 134-140Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.3141/2312-14
Keywords
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Funding
- Louisiana Transportation Research Center
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Models that predict hurricane evacuation demand can play a crucial role in developing and evaluating alternative evacuation policies and plans. However, to evaluate alternative policies effectively, evacuation demand models should be sensitive to time varying characteristics of a storm and the contextual conditions surrounding an evacuee. The time-dependent sequential logit is one such model, but it makes use of restrictive assumptions about the dynamic choices made by evacuees. A new model, a time-dependent nested logit model, relaxes those assumptions. It was formulated and derived in this study, and its performance was then compared with that of the tune-dependent sequential logit model by applying both models to data from Hurricane Gustav. The results indicated that the time-dependent nested logit model has better predictive capability than the time-dependent sequential logit model.
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