Journal
TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES
Volume 63, Issue 2, Pages 215-223Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12249
Keywords
bluetongue; vector-borne disease; mathematical modelling; spread dynamics; model comparison
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Funding
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) [SE4209]
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In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptions of between-herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster.
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