Diffusion models of mobile telephony in Greece

This paper examines and presents the diffusion rate of mobile telephony subscriptions in Greece. Following the evaluation of the most widely used aggregate technology diffusion models (such as the Bass model, the Fisher-Pry model, the Gompertz models and some representatives of the logistic variants), it becomes evident that these S-shaped models are suitable enough for accurate fitting and forecasting the diffusion of mobile telephony. The analysis of the diffusion process in Greece provides some interesting aspects of mobile penetration such as the correlation between the diffusion speed and the number of competing operators as well as other socioeconomic and regulatory aspects. As a result of the estimation of 2G's diffusion process parameters, the potential market size and the analysis of the techniques for the appropriate model selection, this analysis can be considered as a means of providing an insight into the estimation of the diffusion shapes of the forthcoming generations of mobile telephony and telecommunication products and services in Greece and elsewhere. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.